The 2023 Texas Rangers: Meeting, and Exceeding, Expectations

Here in mid-May, the 2023 Texas Rangers find themselves atop the AL West. In fact, they have occupied first place (solely or in a tie) for the entire season to this point. For fans of a team that has spent the last half-decade bouncing off the walls in the American League West’s basement, this is a welcome surprise. It is still incredibly early, but now far enough into the season to begin, hesitantly, to transmute hope to expectations.

Despite the team’s success, the Rangers have also illustrated some resilience already. Three instances come to mind wherein the Rangers’ momentum might have been derailed, but has not: Corey Seager‘s hamstring injury, an unexpected sweep at the hands of the Reds, and a bullpen meltdown in Anaheim to start a ten-game intra-division roadtrip.

In all three instances, the Rangers bounced back. In Seager’s absence, the lineup has continued to hum along (more on this in a bit). Following a sweep by the Reds, the Rangers responded by taking 3 of 4 against the Yankees. And following a painful loss to the Angels in a game that Dane Dunning pitched brilliantly in while subbing in for Jacob deGrom – a key piece of context – the Rangers turned the corner to take 2 of 3 against both the Angels and Mariners on the road (as they did in Houston in April).

Given this early success, it seems as good a time as any to examine the success that the Rangers have had to this point. Specifically, where have expectations been met and what additional, or unanticipated, performances have propelled this team beyond preseason projections? Lastly, where might there be causes for concern?

I: Meeting Expectations

Off the bat, it should be noted that the Rangers have not been benefiting from luck. Through March 13th, the team has a +89 run differential, good for second best in baseball behind the runaway Rays. That differential is motivated by a lineup that has been clicking from top to bottom. The Rangers PR team on Twitter highlighted as much, posting that the “Club’s 221 runs this season are a Rangers record for the 1st 33 G of a season, most by any MLB team over a season’s 1st 33 G since 2000 Cardinals had 223 runs.”

So, a good start for the lineup. The team’s 6.23 runs per game is best in baseball and the 3.95 runs allowed per game isn’t too bad either, good for 8th lowest among all teams. This combination results in the third best winning percentage in the American league to this point. To my knowledge, no projection system had the Rangers performing so well.

In search of a reason for this start, look no further than the top of the lineup. The heart of the Rangers order has done its part to shoulder the load. Marcus Semien, Adolis García, and Nathaniel Lowe own wRC+ values of 137, 109, and 121, respectively, to this point. Especially given the injury to Corey Seager, the offensive value of this trio has been integral. Coming into the season there were, broadly speaking, expectations associated with the top half of the lineup and questions associated with the bottom half. This group has done an exceptional job holding up its end of the deal.

What’s more is that those numbers do not appear to be flukes either; of those three individuals, only Semien’s wOBA is outperforming his xwOBA, but his 12.6% walk rate should insulate his performance some if and when those numbers regress toward expectations.

Next, the rotation has done its job and then some. Crucially, to this point in the season, just 6 players have started for the Rangers; each of the Rangers intended starting five made their turns through the rotation until deGrom’s injury, which Dunning has jumped in for capably. Through March 13th last season, 8 distinct pitchers had made starts and just two (Dunning and Martín Pérez) had taken the ball 6 times.

Candid fans might have always baked in the outsized possibility that Jacob deGrom would spend some time on the IL this year. However, before hitting the IL, deGrom had been as good as advertised. Taking his performance as well as some time on the shelf together, deGrom has generally met expectations as a fragile ace. Meanwhile, the rest of the Rangers Opening Day starters (all of which, it should be noted, came to the Rangers as free agent signings) have contributed 5+ innings a start with serviceable, or better, results.

The Rangers have expedited their middling skinny rebuild with an injection of talent by way of free agency. To this point, those deals appear to be paying off.

II: Exceeding Expectations

While those aforementioned performances were necessary for the Rangers to find their footing as a decent team in 2023, they were generally baked into the projections that pegged the Rangers as a decent, if mediocre, team. So what has pushed them beyond that?

To start, the bottom half of the lineup and the role players that occupy those spots. The foursome of Ezequiel Durán, Leody Taveras, Josh Smith, and Travis Jankowski has combined to be worth 2.2 WAR to this point, an unexpected development from a group that is largely seen as being roughly replacement level. Each of those players has a wRC+ of 120+, which surely wasn’t anticipated.

These performances seem to validate the front office’s decision to not invest in the lineup apart from a 2 million guarantee to Robbie Grossman. That was a prescient vote of confidence given the lineup is largely unchanged from last year, when the Rangers ranked 19th in baseball with a team wRC+ of 98, or 2 percent below average.

Meaningful, too, is Jonah Heim taking a giant leap forward offensively for the second year in a row. His 155 wRC+ is second best among qualifying MLB catchers behind Sean Murphy of the Braves. While his performance at the plate might regress some given his .364 BABIP to this point, Heim’s wOBA of .397 (!) is right in line with his expected results (xwOBA of .399).

Taken together, the Rangers 5-9 hitters have been exceptional.

Exceptional is also a good word to apply to Nathan Eovaldi to this point. On the back of his current scoreless inning streak, Eovaldi is presently worth 2.2 fWAR and boasted a 1.94 FIP while also inducing ground balls over half the time (52.1%). His fWAR and FIP are second among starters in MLB (each behind Zac Gallen) and IP total (53.1) is third overall. With time missed from deGrom, Eovaldi has put up deGromian numbers for the Rangers.

Meanwhile, Dane Dunning has been an invaluable swingman as both an innings eater out of the bullpen and more recently capable replacement to deGrom in the rotation. Dunning, like Eovaldi, gets ground balls in bunches (48.9% rate) and has yet to allow a home run in 2023.

These two performances have gone a long way in propping up a rotation that was a glaring weakness for the Rangers in 2022.

Finally, the bullpen deserves some credit for its work. Ranking 14th in WAR and 11th in FIP may not be exceptional, but there were fears that this group might be a real hindrance to the Rangers’ success in 2023. Similarly to the lineup, management opted largely against reinforcing the relief corps this offseason and, to this point, things have turned out okay. Will Smith might be the bullpen equivalent of Robbie Grossman and, sliding into the closer role, has done as well as anyone might have hoped.

III: Causes for Concern

For glass-half-empty-loyalists, there is always something to fret about. While the Rangers do sport a healthy run differential, there is no such thing as a perfect team or one impervious to the inevitable headwinds characteristic of a 162-game season. A couple in particular stick out.

While the lineup has been impressive, outfielders Leody Taveras and Travis Jankowski’s wOBAs are both >50 points greater than their xwOBAs, suggesting some significant regression could be in store for them. Meanwhile, Duran has a minuscule 0.9% walk rate, which means he has very little margin for error should his bat go cold. Similarly concerning is Josh Jung‘s strikeout rate, 30.8%, which is 12th highest among qualifying hitters.

The rotation has been a strength to this point, but that can always change. No team can bet on using just six starters over the course of the year. With that in mind, the Rangers’ starting depth may soon be tested.

The bullpen, while serviceable to this point, does show clear signs of shakiness. That 11th ranking FIP goes along with a, wait for it, 27th ranking xFIP, suggesting there is some regression in performance to come. Additionally, the bullpen has not been overly taxed to this point: presently, Texas’s pen ranks 29th in baseball in innings pitched. Should the rotation hit a speed bump and the bullpen grow more stretched, the results may suffer.

Performance regression from the lineup and bullpen? Starting pitching health? The good news for fans is that these are not worries unique to the Rangers, but for all MLB teams. As they wrap up a successful ten-game road trip today, there is likely a lot more to feel optimistic about than pessimistic; and however they might feel, it’s better to feel that way from first place than otherwise.

All data through March 13th