Wild Card Teams Have Done Pretty Well For Themselves, All Things Considered

At the time of this writing the Washington Nationals lead their National League championship series against the St. Louis Cardinals two games to none. The Nationals’ path to this point was not a linear one. They stumbled out of the gates to a 19-31 record, they put together a phenomenal summer which resulted in 93 regular season wins despite their poor start, they were only just “gifted” an NLDS berth, and now finally appear in control in the playoffs’ penultimate stage. 

This post isn’t about the Washington Nationals though. It is about wild card teams, specifically those Wild Card teams who survive MLB’s single-game wild card playoff. Introduced in 2012, the win-or-go-home wild card format has annually enabled two additional teams to qualify for the playoffs, one from either league. It has created an opportunity for instant gratification for playoff viewers, forced greater competition for division crowns, and rendered sample sizes meaningless as entire seasons rest on a single game’s outcome.

Regardless of how you feel about MLB’s wild card format, it has been the reality for teams vying for the final playoff spots for nine full seasons now. What follows is a brief look at how those wild card teams have performed in those singular games, and in the deeper playoffs that followed.

As far as specific franchises are concerned, there have been really obvious winners and losers nine years in. Several teams have been able to, more than once, leverage their wild card berth into a championship series appearance or more. In an opposite sense, several teams have seen their seasons efforts collapse overnight.

Here is a chart of the all time one-and-done records for teams that have been part of this wild card format. All told, 21 teams have had the opportunity (or curse, depending upon their perspective) to play in at least one wild card game.

The obvious winners are the Giants. More importantly than their brief and immaculate wild card game record is the World Series title they were able to claim in 2014 as a wild card team. Having just grazed into the postseason, they used the wild card game as a launching pad through the rest of the playoffs.

On the other hand, the obvious losers here are the Oakland Athletics. Perennially under-budgeted, the A’s have thrice had to settle for the wild card gamble and all three times been sent packing. Omissions from this list loom large as well. The Red Sox have not yet needed to engage in a single game playoff, while the Astros’ dominance has forced the A’s into that uncomfortable scenario twice in two seasons.

Surely, franchises with a Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Justin Verlander, or Charlie Morton might be best suited to survive a wild card game. Still, the 2014 Athletics are a good example of even good plans going awry; Jon Lester, their hired gun and known playoff force, alone couldn’t push them over the edge. The Rays very clearly benefitted from Charlie Morton, an elite swing-and-miss inducing pitcher, as the individual going in a winner take all scenario. 

In all, eight teams have not known success in the winner-take-all WC game format, eight teams have not known failure, and five remaining teams have seen either outcome. But let’s jump forward now, and see how those teams who do survive the wild card game fare thereafter. Below is a chart features outcomes for each of those teams.

The 16 teams that have advanced have done pretty well considering what they find themselves to be up against. The outlier season is surely 2014, wherein either wild card team advanced to the World Series. Altogether, 7 of 16 wild card teams have won their division series matchup at least. 

That number is impressive given several factors which lean against a wild card teams favor. For one, those teams are by design playing the strongest (by record, at least) teams in their league; they do not have the advantage of play at home; they are not well rested and, most likely, do not have their best pitcher available to start a series. 

Still, nearly half the time wild card teams prevail in the division series. If one assumed any given wild card team had a 50% chance of victory each series after the wild card game (a generous coin flip given the aforementioned disadvantages), the “expected” number of series victories for  these 16 teams is 14. Without counting the present NLCS, these teams have won 10 series. Not a bad total, and one the Nationals are still working to build on.

It’s impossible to say how much of those successes can be attributed to “momentum” or residual adrenaline from having had their seasons on the line, but wild card teams have given relatively rested, top seed teams legitimate difficulties. Those top seed teams have put wild card opponents away just over 56% of the time, a win percentage less even than what you might expect from those top seeded teams during the regular season. Yes, the sample size for these matchups is incredibly diminutive, but it’s seemingly fitting to look through the lens of small samples when examining team whose reality comes down to them.

To date, just the 2014 San Francisco Giants have been able to earn a World Series title as a wild card team. The Washington Nationals, meanwhile, are working hard to change that. Whatever the outcome, it is encouraging to see these teams making good of their chances after surviving the wild card.