Expectations, Setbacks, Progress, and Uncertainty

This post, contrary to what it’s title might suggest, isn’t just a list of buzzwords. It is about one player whose career has a tumultuous journey to this point. That player is Jurickson Profar.

Expectations.

Jurickson Profar has been a big deal for awhile now. Born is Curacao in 1993, Profar made himself known at a young age. In both 2004 and 2005 he played for his native Curacao in the Little League World Series, with one of those appearances giving way to a Little League WS Championship. Drafted by the Rangers on July 2nd 2009 at the ripe age of 16, Profar was elevated to prospect royalty near immediately.  

Profar climbed the Minor League ladder quickly, playing against considerably older competition each step of the way. Before 2011 he was widely considered a Top-100 prospect. That year, he won the Sally League MVP award playing against players nearly three and a half years older than him, on average.  

His projections thus maintained their trajectory. Before 2012 he was a consensus Top-10 prospect. Some bearishly considered him too much of a “jack of all trades, master of none” type of prospect to rank so high, but his combination of extreme youth and polish made him easily projectable. He looked like a natural born ballplayer; all aspects of a game which requires a plethora of skill sets appeared to come easy to him; he had Feel.  

In 2012 Profar slashed .281/.368/.452/.820 against players more than 5 years his senior, on average, in the AA Texas League. He earned a September call-up. In this first Major League at-bat, nearly closer to 19 years old than 20, he did this. Going into 2013, MLB, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus all placed Profar at the zenith of their annual top prospects lists. He was on the cusp, and everyone felt sure he was going to take his shot and round first base with it.

Setbacks.

Jurickson started out 2013 in AAA Round Rock. For just over a month, he held his own against pitchers who often had MLB track records and who were sometimes a full decade his senior. He sprayed extra base hits. He walked nearly as often as he struck out. He did what he had been doing his whole playing career.

Following an Ian Kinsler injury, Profar earned a May call-up. It wouldn’t have been unreasonable to guess that with that call-up his minor league days were all but behind him.  

But for the first time in his professional baseball career, Profar scuffled. It might have been the lack of consistency; Profar started 29 games at second, 16 at short (his natural position), 10 at third base, and even 4 in left field. We was only deployed in a semi-regular role, collecting at bats where he could by filling in for an injured regular or plugging a hole during someone else’s scheduled off day. In all, he hit .234 and recorded a .644 OPS for Texas in 2013.  

Still, a .644 OPS from a 20 year old having to shuffle between positions isn’t by any means wholly disheartening, even considering the hype. The Rangers, anticipating bright days to come, shipped Ian Kinsler to Detroit for Prince Fielder, in part to get more left-handed in their order (they also signed Shin-Soo Choo that winter), but primarily to free up second base for Profar.

Baseball is a brutal and fickle game though. In Spring Training early in 2014 Profar went down with a shoulder injury. Painful story short, initial attempts to simply rest his ailing shoulder beget further complications and ultimately a shoulder surgical procedure. When all was said and done, Profar had logged exactly 0 MLB AB’s in 2014/15 as a result of this painful sequence.

Progress.

In 2016 Profar, finally healthy, got another shot at the Major Leagues. But his results were eerily similar to those of his partial season in 2013.  In 2013, he managed 324 PA’s and a 75 wRC+; in 2016, he got 307 PA’s and was good for a 75 wRC+.  Still, he crucially proved himself to be healthy again.  But pedigree and expectations only get you so far; his reward for that uninspiring production was his first near full year at AAA Round Rock in 2017.

2018 was the year Profar finally wedded good health and productivity at the Major League level. His 2018 wRC+ was a solid, if not amazing checking in at 108, but his value lied in what was earlier suspected to be a hindrance to him, forced versatility. He started 61 games at shortstop and 46 at third base, covering admirably for the formidable pretenses of Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre. He additionally started 20 games at first base and 9 at second. This time around playing without a position suited him just fine.

In all Profar managed nearly 3 WAR will operating in a super-utility role. Amazingly still just entering his age-26 season going into 2019, he was two years removed from free agency. So ten full years after having signed with the Rangers and riding out all forms of professional peaks and valleys, naturally, Jurickson Profar was traded.

Uncertainty.

Jurickson Profar has had a rough start to 2019, there is no question about it.  He has managed just a 59 wRC+.  Some of his troubles might be attributed to poor luck to this point though; his BABIP sits currently at an unsustainably low .197.  In fact, his 39.4% hard hit rate is the highest of his career and both his LD%/FB% are up from his career averages.  In short, he’s due for at least some bounce back.

As they stand though, those offensive metrics, already bad enough, have been compounded by poor defense as well.  Currently, Profar has 8 errors and is considered below replacement level defensively.  The lion’s share of his errors come from errant throws.  Jurickson has not even had to vacillate between positions and change throwing angles this year; all of his starts, save one at first base, have come at second.

Despite these brutal overall numbers, there is reason to believe that Jurickson is climbing out of his April-sized hole.  In May, he owns an .820 OPS to go along with a, still underperforming, BABIP of .245.  Given that he has no options remaining, this delayed emergence is huge for the Athletics.  The A’s were a surprise last year, and this season obviously hope to compete.  Given his early production, or lack thereof, Profar was quickly beginning to represent a considerable obstacle.  Should he continue to distance himself from his funk, the A’s shouldn’t have to consider making any changes.

Prospects’ futures are always uncertain, even in the cases of the very highly rated ones.  Profar, for all his bumps along the way, has a big league job with a team that figures to heat up and contend.  And that is enough certainty for now.