Athletes of Burden

Baseball is often referred to as a game of failure. The irony in that phrase is that the MLB players we most closely follow, who we might see at a game or watch on television or read about online, have experienced immense success compared to very nearly everyone else who has ever played. 

MLB players are incredibly talented, but they are broadly recognized for that level of talent.  This post is about another group, one that might have the greatest amount of talent relative to their present level of recognition.  

AAA baseball is a strange sort of limbo. Yes, the hotels the teams stay in are nicer (opposed to the lower MiLB levels), there are fewer bus rides relative to flights (at least in the Pacific Coast League), and, most importantly, players have climbed to compete at the penultimate point in their baseball journey, or so they sincerely hope.

But there is a reason that there is no AAA Futures Game.

It is due in part to the dearth of “top” prospects at the AAA level.  It is a result of the eclectic population of any given AAA team and, more widely, the league that team is a part of.  It is the result of the vastly varying trajectories of those players who find themselves in either the International League or the Pacific Coast League.  

AAA, for the Top 100 prospects that fans so closely track, is often just a brief pitstop before their shot at the major leagues. A player who finds himself in AAA could be right on the cusp of a long MLB career. More likely though, he will be boomeranged between AAA and the big leagues while his options are burnt by the team who employs him. Or he might have already experienced most of his success and simply be fighting for another shot. It might be his second full season on those cheap flights, or third, or fourth.

This post briefly examines a couple players who are right on the cusp; they have been tremendously successful, but are still a single fickle step away. Players who are off to a good start, and might be pushing the envelope to make their dreams come true.

A few parameters for following players:

• They are off to undeniably hot starts, if only during a relatively short time frame featuring correspondingly small sample sizes.
• These players are not young by MLB’s top prospect standards; they are at least 25 years old. 
• They might have had a cup of coffee in the majors, but won’t have exceeded their rookie limits.

These are players who didn’t get their shot as quickly as they hoped.  They are players who might be the next Christian Walker or Daniel Vogelbach.  Or they might never get their shot.

First up, Kevin Cron.

Cron, who at this point may be most easily associated with his older brother, C.J., turned 26 during Spring Training and has yet to appear in the Major Leagues. Originally taken in the third round of the 2011 draft by the Mariners, Cron instead chose to enroll and play at TCU.  

While in college, injuries and some inconsistency sapped his prospect value to teams. He left TCU after being taken by the Diamondbacks in the 14th round of the 2014 MLB draft, sliding 11 rounds from where he was taken out of high school.

Since being drafted, Cron has consistently hit throughout nearly all his minor league stops.  All told, he owns a career .842 OPS in the minor leagues to go along with 126 professional home runs.

His defense has long lagged behind his offensive production, though.  In his first three pro seasons, Cron played first base exclusively. In 279 games throughout those three years, he recorded 26 errors, an unsustainable total for a first baseman. 

Since the beginning of the 2018 season the Diamondbacks have split Cron’s playing time between first and third base, likely in attempts to diversify his skill set and simultaneously find another spot that his bat might play.

In his first crack at AAA pitching in 2018, Cron slashed .309/.368/.554/.921, albeit in high-elevation Reno, of the immensely hitter-friendly PCL. This year he is off to an even more robust start. Through 34 games, Cron owns a 1.112 OPS and has already hit 14 home runs.  

Paul Goldschmidt no longer holds down first base in Arizona.  Christian Walker, blocked by Goldschmidt before his departure, is taking advantage of his overdue chance to play in the big leagues.  Kevin Cron hopes that, with greater versatility and defensive consistency, he might soon get his chance too.  The fact that he resides on the Diamondbacks’ 40-man roster is crucial.

Next, Brian O’Grady.

O’Grady was originally taken out of Rutgers University in the 2014 MLB draft by the Cincinnati Reds, six rounds earlier than Kevin Cron was picked.  Born on May 17th, 1992, O’Grady will turn 27 in less than a week. While he hasn’t been given serious prospect consideration, to his credit he has performed at each step along the way.  

Power is not O’Grady’s primary asset: his home run total peaked at 14 last season. To compensate for that lack of clout, O’Grady instead offers strong on-base abilities; his career OBP is more than 100 points higher that his batting average. 

O’Grady hasn’t necessarily boosted his value defensively throughout his ascent though. Upon making his professional debut, he made a good percentage of his starts from center field. More recently, O’Grady has played most often in the corner outfield or first base. For 2019, he has played first base near exclusively.

Playing first base for a franchise who also employs Joey Votto is almost as damning as playing first for a franchise who employs Paul Goldschmidt. Regardless, O’Grady will force a conversation if he continues to hit the way he has early on in 2019.  

Thus far, O’Grady has supplemented his on-base skills (his walk rate is currently 16.1% with AAA Louisville) with some of the power necessary in today’s game for a corner bat. In 26 games, he has slugged .640, which in tandem with a .450 OBP makes good for a 172 wRC+.  

O’Grady may benefit from his on-base skills especially once he becomes victim to some regression to the mean. Currently, O’Grady’s BABIP sits at .490.  While a harbinger of tougher times to come, patience sometimes enables players to smooth out some inevitable streakiness.  

A 40-man roster spot does not belong to O’Grady, so his road to the Majors is still incredibly uncertain despite being so close and performing so well.  

Despite significant obstacles, 6 out of 10 Reds’ PA leaders sport OPS’s south of .700; at some point one must imagine that the Reds will have a hard time ignoring a strong start, the sample size of which continues to grow.

Finally, Ryan McBroom.

McBroom, who has been 27 for just over a month, was drafted first by the Royals out of West Virginia University in 2013 but only signed a year later when taken by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 15th Round of 2014.  

In July 2017 McBroom was swapped for Rob Refsnyder, making him a part of the New York Yankees organization. McBroom has been playing for the Yankees AAA affiliate in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.  

A right-handed hitter and left-handed batter, McBroom plays first base as well as the corner outfield positions. Despite not playing premium positions, McBroom appears to be adept defensively, particularly in the outfield where he has committed just one error over 540+ innings in the field, vacillating between right and left.

Currently, McBroom owns a 145 wRC+ due largely to a bump in power. His .274 ISO is easily the highest of his career. While that total is sure to come down to earth sometime soon, perhaps more importantly he has shaved down his strikeout rate to below 20% after striking out 27.3% last year in a full season at AAA.  Additionally encouraging is this level of production with a mundane .298 BABIP, suggesting he isn’t the beneficiary of good fortune on balls in play.

A couple key factors are working against a McBroom promotion though.  First, he hasn’t been pulled up yet. That point carries weight because of the rash of injuries that have plagued the Yankees already to this point. One might doubt the Yankees’ confidence in McBroom now especially given that they haven’t given him a chance despite those injuries.

Like O’Grady, McBroom does not have a spot on the Yankees 40-man roster. That fact alone might be the primary explanation for his being passed over to this point. As a result of this status his hot start will likely have to extend itself considerably before the Yankees deem him worthy of occupying a spot.

These players might not be exactly where they were hoping to be as ballplayers in their mid-twenties, but their hot starts underscore the fact that they are doing everything in their power to achieve even greater success. Baseball players so rarely achieve autonomy over their own fate, but playing like these players have urges those who do pull the strings to give them a long hard look, and that is all they can hope for.