Pulling the Baseball Hard in the Air: Risers in 2024

A couple weeks ago, Jeff Passan wrote an article for ESPN on a trio of talented Red Sox prospects: Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony, and Marcelo Mayer. The overarching theme of that article, as I took it anyway, was the hitting philosophy that the Red Sox are imbuing in those talented players.

To put it perhaps over-simply, the Red Sox emphasize the value of hitting the ball hard and in the air, ideally to the pull-side. As Passan puts it: “Pulling the ball in the air is particularly important. The longer a bat takes to make contact, the more speed it generates. Meeting a ball in front — which typically allows a hitter to pull — maximizes the capacity for damage”. Now, these concepts are not particularly new. Early in his piece, Passan notes a Ted Williams quote featured in the batting facility of the Red Sox Spring Training facility emphasizing hitting the ball hard and in the air.

Still, these points appear to be worth repeating early and often as the data bears out the value of lifting the baseball. The so-called Fly Ball Revolution, as Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik note in their book, The MVP Machine, league-wide wOBA on contact in the year 2018 intimately related to launch angle: -30 to -20: .050, -20 to -10: .188, -10 to 0: .245, 0 to 10: .462, 10 to 20: .712, 20 to 30: .731.

Given the convincing and enduring wisdom of getting the baseball aloft—as well as to pull it hard—I decided to take a look at how individual players adjusted from the past two seasons. To measure their outcomes, I relied on FanGraphs’ leaderboards and pulled data for players that had qualifying seasons both in 2023 and 2024, of which there were 84. I wished to know who among those players seemed to lean into pulling the ball hard and in the air in 2024, and who did not.

First, a look at the risers. I used Pull%, Average EV, and Average LA as the measures for “pull, pop, and launch.”

Of 84 qualifying players, 14 hit the ball harder, pulled it, and launched it higher on average in 2024 than in 2023. Given what we know about these metrics, one shouldn’t be particularly shocked to see they generally outperformed their 2023 productivity at the plate in 2024 when seeing an uptick in all three measures. Just two players on this list, Ryan McMahon and Orlando Arcia, regressed—in terms of wRC+—in 2024 relative to 2023. Arcia, it should be noted too, hit the ball harder on average in 2024 by just a fraction of a mph.

Meanwhile, those who spurned the “pull, pop, launch” lifestyle, intentionally or otherwise, in 2024 had more middling results.

11 of 84 qualifiers made this list. Of those, results from 2023 to 2024 were a mixed bag. Sure, Teoscar Hernández had a season worthy of a 66 million dollar extension, but not everyone on this list would be so happy with their results. Still, this is a good group of hitters. One doesn’t fall backwards into two consecutive qualifying seasons in MLB; playing that much alone indicates you’re a high-quality player, even by MLB’s lofty standards.

But what about the other players not captured by these tables? Well, I am a fan of a good Venn Diagram, and this was a perfect opportunity to roll one out. As such, below is such a diagram that groups all qualifiers whose average EV, average LA or Pull% rose in 2024. Presenting the data in this manner can, in and of itself, be pretty telling about broader trends.

Briefly considering this Venn Diagram offers a few clues given where players seem to be clustered. Among these three metrics, launch angle appears to have been the most accessible “lever” for players making adjustments in 2024, as players are seemingly more concentrated there. The totals bear that out; of the 84 qualifiers, 53—or 63%—of players raised their average launch angle relative to 2023. Meanwhile, hitting the ball harder is a bit tougher to cross off one’s to-do list; 39 of 84 players here managed to hit the ball harder on average in in 2024 than in the season prior. Similarly, 38 of 84 players have a Pull% greater in 2024 than in 2023.

But how did performances break down for these disparate groups? The final table provides the average wRC+ change among each Venn Diagram area.

While these sample sizes aren’t anything to write home about, the takeaways from this summary are telling. Among Pull%, average LA, and average EV, it appears there is a clear winner in terms of corresponding production: average EV. Those players that hit the ball harder on average, regardless of those other two metrics, had better seasons on average than they did the year prior. In fact, those players who hit the ball harder in 2024 relative to 2023, but didn’t pull or launch it so much as they had previously, saw better improvements in wRC+ than those whose metrics rose across all three measures.

The extent to which exit velocity can be taught (trained?) is probably subject to debate, and surely further analysis. One must imagine members of the Red Sox and other organizations, are considering that question among many others. Still, quality of content as measured by exit velocity absolutely relates to launch angle and likely batted ball direction too. While taking all those measures into account, simply hitting the ball hard seems to be a good primary objective.