Choosing Over or Under on 2022 Texas Rangers ZiPS Projections

Creating projections for MLB players seems to me all at once a Herculean and a Sisyphean task. Creating (“good”) projections is of course quite technically rigorous in the first place, and maintaining those projections year after year is a task that, by definition, will never be complete. These realities are part of why I so appreciate projections created for baseball; someone like myself can enjoy the good work that others do to project future performances of favorite players and teams.

Each year in recent memory at FanGraphs, Dan Szymborski has released his ZiPS projections of players, by organization, for the coming season. Recently, Dan released those ZiPS projections for the 2022 Texas Rangers. As a Rangers fan, I never like to see a bearish projection for the team, but very simply, the Rangers have justified (and later validated) those most recent projections. Going into 2022, it is fairly clear (projections or no projections) that it will take more than Marcus Semien and Corey Seager to put the Rangers over the top and into contention going forward.

Given the hard work that goes into projections, what follows is conversely a pretty whimsical exercise. Without meaningful data or analysis, I will take an over or under position on each of the Rangers active roster players’ projected 2022 fWAR total, as provided by ZiPS. To be clear, I rely often on feel and qualitative considerations, meaning these picks really shouldn’t be taken all that seriously and certainly aren’t a referendum on a historically impressive projection system like ZiPS.

Dan provided projections for considerably more players than are presently on the Rangers active roster. For this post, I will only make picks for those currently rostered players, of which there are 39. Of those 39, ZiPS has projected all but one, Ricky Vanasco. Thus, I will provide 38 over/under picks. ZiPS is not subjective, but I am. In an ideal world, all those players we support could outperform their projections, but we don’t live in that world. Because of this, I am committing to make exactly 19 over picks and 19 under picks, if only to suppress my inner hopes and optimism.

Finally, it should be noted that not all of these players will remain on the Rangers active roster: surely some will never appear in a single game with the Rangers in 2022. However, while MLB’s lockout is in effect and rosters are frozen, this is as good a time as any for such an activity.

I: Pitchers – “Over”

• A.J. Alexy (ZiPS: 0.5 WAR): I think Alexy ends up in the Major League bullpen ultimately, but he has a track record of missing bats in the minor leagues and has made his way up the Rangers depth chart to get a good amount of innings. That combination of innings and swing-and-miss history in the high-minors makes 0.5 look reasonable to eclipse.

• Brett Martin (ZiPS: 0.5 WAR): Martin has surpassed this 0.5 fWAR threshold in each of his two full (non-2020) seasons; he limits damage through modest walk figures and has consistently eaten the innings necessary for a middle reliever to be valued above replacement level.

• Dane Dunning (ZiPS: 1.6 WAR): I think the Rangers will approach Dunning’s workload very differently this year, enabling him to be a stabilizing force in the rotation and to go 1-2 extra innings on those outings where he’s on, thus pushing his WAR north of 2.0.

• Glenn Otto (ZiPS: 1.0 WAR): Given the Rangers’ lack of established Major League starters, I think Glenn Otto gets a solid amount of innings, throws a whole lot of sliders, and racks up more than 1.0 fWAR in doing so. That said, this pick very well might be sponsored by recency bias given his brief, but successful, glimpse of MLB action in 2021.

• Joe Barlow (ZiPS: 0.0 WAR): Barlow will not be so good as he was last season (1.55 ERA, 4.56 xFIP, .143 BABIP), but I believe that his fastball (69th percentile velocity, 53rd percentile spin) can be a carrying tool in 2022 pushing above replacement level.

• Jon Gray (ZiPS: 2.3 WAR): Gray, the most valuable projected pitcher on the Rangers, nonetheless has a good chance to surpass his projection, in my own myopic view. The Rangers have had success on these types of deals (3-4 years, moderate AAV) recently so I have some bias, but I think anyone would benefit from leaving Colorado and Gray will be depended on for innings.

• Josh Sborz (ZiPS: 0.3 WAR): I think Josh Sborz is good for a similar campaign in 2022 as 2021, serving as a consistent option for the Rangers; this over pick is motivated largely by supposing that his walk rate (4.88 BB/9 in 2021) regresses toward his prior career average.

• Nick Snyder (ZiPS: -0.2 WAR): The sample size is tiny for projecting Snyder (just 78 career MiLB games; just 4 in AAA) but the a 98.7 mph average fastball counts for something and 2021’s 12.8 K/9 across several levels in the minors is significant too.

• Spencer Patton (ZiPS: 0.1 WAR): Similarly to Joe Barlow, I hesitate to assume Patton can repeat a 2021 campaign that sat somewhere between solid and strong (3.19 FIP, 10.2 K/9), but I believe that he can get close enough to surpass that projection provided by ZiPS.

• Taylor Hearn (ZiPS: 0.1 WAR): Hearn appeared to get better with time last season, and he is more stretched out than many of the other starters/swingman-types on the Rangers roster, which to me suggests he will earn a good amount of innings. I think Hearn capitalizes enough on those innings to be above replacement level.

II: Pitchers – “Under”

• Brock Burke (ZiPS: 0.8 WAR): Since making his MLB debut in 2019, Burke has been sidelined due to injury (2020) and more recently relegated to AAA in 2021 for more fine tuning. His results there were mixed (5.68 ERA, but 4.60 xFIP and 11.24 K/9), but I don’t envision him getting the innings he needs to represent close to 1 WAR in 2022 until the injury issues are further in the rear view mirror.

• Demarcus Evans (ZiPS: 0.0 WAR): This was a tough one. Evans has made quick and convincing work of the minor league opponents he’s faced, with gaudy K figures that reached as high as 16.55/9 on the back of his high-spin fastball. But the fastball velocity to go along with that elite spin has tapered: in his brief MLB stint in 2020 his average velocity was 93.9, but dipped to 91.0 in 2021.

• Dennis Santana (ZiPS: 0.1 WAR): In the case of Santana, my under pick is motivated by rough control numbers: 44 walks in 80.1 career MLB innings. Until that figure is addressed, the likelihood that Santana can provide value above replacement level is suspect in my mind.

• John King (ZiPS: 0.7 WAR): King had a great start to 2021, but shoulder health (e.g. Thoratic Outlet Surgery is scary) that derailed his inclusion in a summer Rangers-Yankees deal has me worried that he can return and provide this value while getting back to health.

• Jonathan Hernández (ZiPS: 0.4 WAR): Hernández, just like King and Leclerc below, is coming off a serious injury. My thought here is simply that this trio, despite prior success, must first get themselves healthy (no small feat, unfortunately) before expecting them to earn meaningful fWAR.

• José Leclerc (ZiPS: 0.5 WAR): Ditto, as with King, Hernández.

• Kolby Allard (ZiPS: 0.2 WAR): Put simply, Allard isn’t well loved by Baseball Savant’s core metrics: 10th percentile in barrel%, 8th percentile in whiff%, 12th in chase rate, 25th in average exit velocity. Until Allard can prove that he can effectively and consistently outperform these metrics, I do not anticipate him outperforming his ZiPS projections.

• Ronny Henriquez (ZiPS: 0.4 WAR): I have high hopes for Henriquez and the Rangers, but coming off his age-21 season with just 69.2 innings in AA and an inflated HR/9 (1.94) figure there, I don’t see 0.4 WAR being surpassed in 2022.

• Spencer Howard (ZiPS: 0.8 WAR): That Howard’s stuff seems to have regressed over the past year-plus is concerning, even despite those robust heights which motivated his prior prospect status. Should he right the ship, he’s liable to blow past this projection, but (perhaps again due to recency bias) the pick here is “under” until all the pieces can come together for sustained stretches.

• Yerry Rodriguez (ZiPS: 0.8 WAR): Rodriquez is likely in line for some significant bullpen innings in 2022 if things can break his way. Similarly to Henriquez though, I wouldn’t bet on greater than 0.8 WAR until Rodriguez has had a chance to make his MLB debut.

III: Position Players – “Over”

• Eli White (ZiPS: -0.3 WAR): Whatever you think of the potential in White’s bat, in my thinking, his defense should get him over the -0.3 WAR mark. Baseball Savant marks his sprint speed in the 100th percentile; getting late-game defensive innings should help him accumulate value while his offense (hopefully) catches up.

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa (ZiPS: 2.2 WAR): Similarly to White, I think IKF’s floor is high on the back of his defense. He might not begin 2022 as a Ranger, but wherever he plays, his value with the glove should be considerable. Additionally, I think a shift in approach to work just a few more walks would help boost his offensive value considerably.

• Jonah Heim (ZiPS: 1.1 WAR): Baseball Savant ranked Heim’s framing in the 98th percentile in 2021. His carrying skill, in addition to evidence of pop (59th percentile in exit velo) could continue to earn Heim the playing time necessary to accrue 1+ WAR.

• Jose Trevino (ZiPS: 0.3 WAR): Trevino, like Heim, has been exceptional at framing pitches behind the plate according to Baseball Savant (96th percentile). These two splitting time should be a major benefit to the Rangers staff in 2022. Unless Trevino can add a bit more value at the plate though, his ceiling will continue to be confined – I just don’t think it will be limited so much as to miss the 0.3 WAR mark.

• Leody Taveras (ZiPS: 1.1 WAR): If you’re sensing a common theme here, you’re probably right: the players that have made up this “over” list all benefit from strong defensive skills. Taveras is no exception; should the bat produce within even shouting distance of league-average, Leody should have all the opportunities to move past 1.1 WAR if he can play regularly.

• Marcus Semien (ZiPS: 4.7 WAR): The reasoning here is pretty straightforward – Semien has been excellent in recent years, even earning 1.2 fWAR in what was a rough and abridged 2020 season. Given his track record of health, robust production of late (2 6+ fWAR years in the last two full seasons), and quality defensive value at second base, this feels like a clear over despite a fairly significant 4.7 WAR bar to clear.

• Sam Huff (ZiPS: -0.4 WAR): I worry about Huff’s ability (for now at least) to consistently hit Major League pitching, but I do not envision him being this level below replacement level. His carrying tools (arm, power) should buoy his production with the Rangers as they ideally work to keep him from being exposed to the league’s best pitching initially.

• Nathaniel Lowe (ZiPS: 2.1 WAR): Lowe’s presence in this group marks a departure from the defense-first nature of much of this list, but I believe he will continue to develop as a solid bat in 2022 while benefitting from sharing the top of the lineup with newcomers Semien and Corey Seager. Should he get the ball in the air a bit more and in doing so leverage his raw power, 2.1 WAR might prove to be fairly conservative projection.

• Yonny Hernandez (ZiPS: 1.0 WAR): Very subjectively, I am a big Yonny Hernandez fan and think he can absolutely carve out a valuable space on just about any team as a utility infielder capable of providing quality at bats. His contact rates are strong (15.1% whiff rate relative to 24.6% MLB average in 2021) and his walk rate was >10% in his brief MLB time last year.

IV: Position Players – “Under”

• Adolis García (ZiPS: 1.8 WAR): Candidly, a 69 wRC+ in the second half of 2021 in tandem with the 5.5% walk rate and 31.8% strikeout rate has me worried about García’s ability to follow up on his strong rookie campaign. The defense is strong, but his value at the plate is so variable that getting close to 2 fWAR might be a tough ask.

• Andy Ibánez (ZiPS: 1.8 WAR): Ibánez clearly can hit Major League pitching, but he doesn’t have any defensive home with the Rangers, especially now considering those splashy free agent signings in Seager and Semien. Should Ibánez shuffle between positions, cede playing time to others, and/or spend much time as a DH, I don’t think his bat will be enough to get him close to 2 fWAR.

• Corey Seager (ZiPS: 4.5 WAR): Another pick I particularly hope that I am wrong about. I make it simply given that Seager hasn’t been worth 4+ WAR in any of the last 4 seasons. The Rangers surely hope to better manage his health and durability during his time to come in Texas, but until there is a bit of a track record, I reluctantly have the under on a 4.5 WAR projection.

• Ezequiel Duran (ZiPS: -0.2 WAR): While I am excited about Duran’s prospects and potential, he has yet to reach AA and I doubt he will have much of a chance to play in MLB in 2022 unless health issues decimate the Rangers’ new middle infield tandem, and other players higher on the depth chart additionally fail to step up.

• Kole Calhoun (ZiPS: 0.8 WAR): From my perspective, Calhoun makes a lot of sense as a signing for the Rangers in 2022 given their dreadful outfield depth. Still, a brutal 2021 characterized by a lower body injury as well as dramatic dropoffs in both offensive and defensive production has me cautious about expecting too much from Calhoun in 2022. Additionally, 2022 will be Calhoun’s age-34 season.

• Willie Calhoun (ZiPS: 0.1 WAR): Willie Calhoun has had some of the worst luck among current players as it relates to injuries. First and foremost, one hopes he can experience a full and healthy 2022 if only to establish a baseline for his production. Still, history is not on his side. Just once, in 2019, was Calhoun worth positive fWAR and he topped out at just 0.5 fWAR given his defensive limitations.

• Nick Solak (ZiPS: 1.3 WAR): Solak’s bat held him below this value in 2021 and playing time will be much harder to come by in 2022. The Rangers do not have a compelling option in left field, but Solak’s offensive value further clouds his viability in a corner outfield spot. Until he can establish consistency in the lineup, Solak will have a tough time reaching 1.3 fWAR (or 500 PAs again, in my mind).

• Sherten Apostal (ZiPS: -0.2 WAR): Apostel, who had a cup of coffee in 2020, took a step back in terms of performance in 2021. His strikeout rates in AA (31.1%) and AAA (36.4%) highlighted the risk associated with him, all while his defensive home is unsettled. Increasingly, first base might be his only tenable option, but Nathaniel Lowe his earned his spot there.

• Zack Reks (ZiPS: 0.2 WAR): Reks made his MLB debut last year with the Dodgers in his age-27 season, although he got just 10 plate appearances. Still, his 2021 AAA performance (127 wRC+) was strong, despite a couple red flags like his .362 BABIP there and 28.5% strikeout rate. Those factors lead me to doubt his playing above replacement level with the Rangers in 2022.

To wrap things up, I have included two tables below, one for pitchers and another for the position players, in order to summarize my picks.

Assuming baseball is played in 2022 (ugh), it will be interesting to see which picks I was correct or incorrect on; surely there will be plenty of misses. Only time will tell.