Contextualizing 2021 for the Texas Rangers

The last decade for the Texas Rangers has been a tale of two halves. The first half of the 2010s featured unprecedented success for the franchise; alternatively the latter half, bluntly put, was a story of severe regression. What bridges those two periods has been coined in some places “a skinny rebuild”, wherein a team shirks a full-blown tear down, á la 2010s Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros, and instead attempts to thread the needle between contending and rebuilding more modestly all at once.

In February 2020, before the season started and as there were only dark rumblings about COVID-19, I pondered the Rangers skinny rebuild to that point and posited that 2020 would be a crucial year for determining its success. Seven months, and a hellacious stretch of literal global proportions (and one shortened baseball season) later, Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs much more elegantly captured the plight of the Rangers over the past decade.

Given this recent history, 2021 was always going to be a crucial, albeit perhaps rough and anticlimactic, season for the Rangers. Importantly, it was characterized by decision makers acknowledging the course previously set probably cut too many corners.

Here I offer a brief summary of the role I believe 2021 will play in the Rangers longer-term plans ahead. One might ask: why now, with just about another month left in the regular season? Well, why not now? As the Rangers teeter toward 100 losses, this is as good a time as any to attempt to contextualize this year. To do so, the following will cover what 2021 has told us about the five following categories: the major league lineup, the major league rotation, the major league bullpen, minor league position players, and minor league pitchers. This is by no means a comprehensive recap, nor does it attempt to be, but in broad strokes it covers the position and direction of each of those five groups.

In a lot of ways, 2021 for the Rangers has been a thoroughly mixed bag; that said, for a year all about accessing the abilities of potentially “building block” type players, 2021 has elucidated quite a bit.

I: The Major League Lineup

As the Rangers are on pace to lose 100 games in 2021, it makes sense to start off on a low note: the lineup. The Rangers batters have been pretty much what most expected coming into this year: bad. As measured by wRC+ (a catch all for offensive productivity normally distributed around 100), the Rangers rank 28th in baseball. As measured by wOBA, the Rangers rank dead last. While this dearth of production was expected to some degree, certain expectations still fell short.

Ahead of 2021, two of the most high-profile Rangers, Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor, were each shipped away following thoroughly enjoyable but ultimately underwhelming production, further complicated by large contracts. Their departure gave way to Isiah Kiner-Felafa and Nick Solak. In 2019, Andrus and Odor combined for just 1.7 fWAR, an unpalatable sum for a franchise who previously hoped to (skinny) build in part around the duo. To this point in 2021, Kiner-Falefa and Solak have combined for a marginally better 2.5 fWAR, largely motivated by IKFs defensive and base running abilities.

For Kiner-Falefa, defense appears to be the carrying skill. Following some drama relating to projections (informed by a statistical model, it should be noted) that left him bristling, IKF hasn’t quite made the leap at the plate. To this late point in the season, IKF’s walk rate has essentially halved relative to his previous career figures while the clout has failed to materialize. IKF’s walk rate in 2021, 3.2%, is the 23rd lowest figure for a qualifying hitter since 2010, a group of 1,710 players. Of the 23 players with walk rates so low, just 3 had wRC+ figures of 100+, and all of those players had slugging percentages greater than .469. For context, IKF’s slugging percentage this year is .364.

To be clear, IKF is still a proficient player despite some offensive limitations; in fact his defense and baserunning combined rank third in baseball according to fivethirtyeight. Still, walking so little and hitting without power limits IKF’s ceiling considerably.

Solak, meanwhile, has run into his own offensive problems after being tabbed as Odor’s heir at second. Following an exceptional 2019 split between AAA and MLB, Solak has had a tough time of it. This season, he didn’t hit more than .207 between May and July and was sent down to get himself right. He’s back now after producing in AAA, but his future is less certain following tough results in an extended look from 2020-2021. Of all the players in the Rangers lineup, Solak might benefit most from a resurgence in the season’s final weeks. To his credit, he’s been hitting since his return.

Outside of Adolis García, whose rough second half was foreshadowed by underlying metrics early on, the lineup has not taken the step forward the way Jon Daniels, Chris Young, and co. would have surely liked it to. Nathaniel Lowe, while a solid major league hitter, ranks last among first baseman by FanGraphs Def metric and hasn’t established the game power (104 OPS+) to be a non-negotiable piece to the middle of a lineup.

More recently though, Andy Ibáñez and Yonny Hernández are getting potentially overdue looks and playing well in the second half. While it remains to be seen how much they will factor in to long term plans, they have offered solid at bats atop a lineup that has managed just a 70 wRC+ in the second half.

In all, the offense has left a lot to be desired. Only a couple players have made legitimate cases to be lineup regulars and no one, García’s first half not withstanding, has been a legitimate All-Star offensively. As for how it impacts the Rangers, well, Chris Young recently said himself that the Rangers will be active this winter in the free agent market; the lineup’s struggles will surely then inform a lot of the Rangers’ plans.

II: The Major League Rotation

From my perspective, the rotation has been a brighter spot. Sure, the Rangers rotation ranks last in MLB fWAR, owns the second highest FIP, and 5th highest ERA, but there appear to be a few more bright spots than in the lineup.

First, for all their innings and efforts, it doesn’t seems terribly likely that either Mike Foltynewicz or Jordan Lyles will be part of the Rangers’ plans beyond 2021.

Meanwhile, Dane Dunning has been healthy and effective, although his leash has been incredibly short given his tiny inning total in 2020 following TJ surgery. He looks to be as advertised: a solid 4-starter who takes his turn every fifth day, locates, and gets groundballs. Of those pitchers with 100+ IP this year, Dunning ranks 5th overall with a 53.6% GB%. Second, Kolby Allard and Taylor Hearn have played their way into significant auditions in the rotation down the stretch.

Allard, whose stuff Baseball Savant doesn’t think too terribly much of, does one thing particularly well, and that is to avoid walks. Allard ranks 11th of 94 pitchers in BB/9, enabling him to go 6 or more innings in each of his last five starts, in three of which he didn’t walk a batter. That ability to avoid or overcome crooked innings has enabled him to pitch more innings than even Dunning, who has been in the rotation all season.

Hearn, like Allard, has recently earned an audition in the rotation after working as a long reliever for the most part in 2021. He’s still fastball-heavy, relying on those pitches 69% of the time (he’s more recently diversified those offering with the introduction of a sinker), but he can put it past batters while throwing in the 78th percentile of FB velocity. In three starts since joining the rotation, Hearn has pitched 16.2 innings while striking out 14 and walking just 2.

While none of those three pitchers seemingly fit at the top of a rotation, all three have been soaking up innings and showing the ability to continue to progress as part of the Rangers’ plans going forward. Despite the Rangers’ struggles drafting and developing starting pitchers, these players are a testament to important trades the Rangers have made in recent years to secure quality, controllable young pitchers. The returns on trades have continued to make their presence known in August with the starts made by Spencer Howard, Glenn Otto, and most recently, A.J. Alexy.

Finally, some of the Rangers’ potential rotation pieces have had their plans derailed this year, namely Kohei Arihara and Kyle Cody. Despite this, there is still a very reasonable hope that they may contribute in 2022.

III: The Major League Bullpen

The bullpen, I daresay, has been a bright spot. While the bottom line results have been pedestrian overall (16th in FIP, 12th in xFIP, 19th in ERA), several players have done a great deal to prove themselves. Brett Martin, John King, and Josh Sborz have played important innings in middle relief; all three of those guys have positive fWAR and have thrown 45+ innings. However, time will tell how King’s shoulder heals and whether or not the Rangers try him in the rotation.

More late inning options to have emerged in 2021 include, but are not limited to, Spencer Patton, Demarcus Evans, and Joe Barlow. The lowest K/9 figure among these three belong to Barlow, who has sat down 10.80 batters per 9. Each of these pitchers seem to have a clear carrying pitch too. Evans is in the 91st percentile of fastball spin according to Baseball Savant; meanwhile, hitters have batted .042 and .088 against Barlow and Patton’s slider, respectively. Finally, while he has only just arrived, Nick Snyder‘s stuff clearly plays (click “show random video” on Baseball Savant’s player page).

With these six names aforementioned, in addition to José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernandez coming back from injuries, there appear to be a surplus of options for the bullpen. Of particular interest too is that the majority of those players (all except Patton and Sborz) have been drafted (sometimes in relatively late rounds) and developed by the Rangers, a positive sign given the lack of homegrown starters.

IV: The Minor League Position Players

The Rangers farm system, according to the professionals, is quite deep. Eric Longenhagen, of FanGraphs, ranked 65 prospects from the Rangers at the start of 2021 and Jamey Newberg, of The Athletic, ranked even more with 72 listed. Since the minor league season began, as is the case with all systems, there have been players who have progressed and others who have regressed (either in performance or through lost opportunity due to injury). In the case of the Rangers, there was also an influx of position player talent this season due to the Joey Gallo trade.

To start, the Rangers have gotten some important performances from their top-tier position player prospects, namely Justin Foscue and Josh Jung. Each first round pick has moved up the minor league ladder; Jung has ascended to AAA and Foscue to AA. Those players rank second and fourth, respectively, in the Rangers mid-season MiLB rankings according to Jamey Newberg (subscription required). While his MLB season has been an unmitigated disaster, one can also pull some positives out of Leody Taveras‘ .245/.343/.475/.818 slash in AAA given just 98 games above High-A ball in his life (including 33 in MLB last year) coming into this season.

Moreover, the addition of Josh Smith, Ezequiel Duran, and Trevor Hauver for Gallo adds depth and offensive upside to the Rangers farm system, albeit without clear defensive homes for that trio. Each player has thrived in the initial weeks since being traded, something that cannot be taken for granted. Speaking of trades, Dustin Harris‘s rise this season might eclipse all other leaps in the Rangers system; one of the returns for Mike Minor, Harris was recently promoted to high-A and has commenced slashing .435/.479/.753/1.232 in his first 94 PAs against competition nearly two years his senior on average.

Watching the Rangers hit in 2021 has been dispiriting; however, the performances of the minor league ranks have done quite a bit to quell those fears that this level of production will last forever. Josh Jung, and those others aforementioned, will not unilaterally save the Rangers lineup, but they will help. If anything, the struggles of the young Rangers in 2021 will inform the front office’s strategy for 2022 and beyond.

V: The Minor League Pitchers

Similarly to the minor league position players, there are two headliners of sorts on the pitching side of things for the Rangers: Cole Winn and Jack Leiter. The performances of those two pitchers, who are born less than five months apart, will go a long way in determining the pace of the Rangers’ rebuild.

It is tough to articulate just how important a season 2021 has been for Cole Winn. Winn, who was uncharacteristically erratic (5.1 BB/9) in his first taste of professional baseball in 2019, has come back strong and efficient in 2021 after a nonexistent MiLB 2020; I cannot imagine too many scenarios in which Winn performed better than he has this season against older AA batters. Against competition nearly four years his senior, on average, Winn has struck out 11.3 batters per 9 while lowering his walk rate to 3.1 per 9; his excellent first half was parlayed into a Futures Game start as well. The Rangers have been understandably cautious with Winn’s workload in the second half as he’s thrown just 27.1 innings since July 1st. He will likely resume his work in AA to start 2022 while a promotion from there could come quite quick.

As for Leiter, it was really all about landing him. The Rangers, who desperately needed to do well with the second overall pick, seem to have taken both a consensus high-floor and high-ceiling player. One can only speculate how the Rangers aim to deploy Leiter in 2022, but for now he has been shut down and the Rangers have to feel pretty good about his next steps.

Aside from those high-upside and Top 100 prospect types, plenty of pitchers have taken the steps necessary to put themselves in line behind the A.J. Alexy’s and Glenn Otto’s of the world. Jake Latz, Cody Bradford, Ronny Henriquez, Yerry Rodriguez all moved up the minor league ladder in 2021 and represent the depth that is becoming a calling card for the Rangers system.

The major league bullpen has really been the first recipient of the Rangers’ minor league pitching development. 2021 has marked significant progress though for players who have some clear staying power as starters.

VI: In Summation

With any luck, 2021 will be remembered as the low water mark for this period of Texas Rangers history. That sentiment speaks first to how rough a season it has been at the major league level, but it also reflects on the new course set by decision makers and the significant development that has occurred outside the major league level.

It is additionally encouraging to see the benefits of Rangers trades that did take place during the skinny rebuild (silver lining time here). As Rangers fans enjoy watching the debuts of Glenn Otto and A.J. Alexy, it’s easy to forget that Hearn, Allard, and Dunning all arrived via trade as well. Those trades, in tandem with a largely homegrown bullpen, are setting the foundation for the Rangers pitching staff of the future, while an increasingly deep group of pitchers is waiting in the wings.

The Rangers leaped from 24th at the season’s start to 11th in Baseball America’s midseason system rankings due to a combination of three factors already touched on: high (and hopefully prescient) draft picks, rebuilding trades, and the performance of existing players. Despite some instances of stagnation and injuries, which will always be characteristic of a minor league season, the Rangers farm by and large took a big step forward in 2021. From the minor league side, 2021 was a considerable success.

Finally, the shortcomings of these 2021 Rangers will be fastidiously considered and addressed by the Rangers front office; where there were holes the Rangers will work to develop patches, likely through free agency. No one can say the 2021 Rangers instilled a false sense of hope in those making decisions. There is, and always will be, plenty of work to be done.