The Early Season Emergence of Adolis García

Adolis García has been a revelation for the Texas Rangers this season. García, who didn’t make the Rangers Opening Day roster, has been quick to make up for lost time since being promoted on April 13th. To this point, he has accrued 1.5 WAR, good for a Top 25 spot in MLB despite having fewer plate appearances than anyone on that list save Dodgers catcher Will Smith. Among Rangers, Adolis ranks second among all players in WAR, has been a consistent right-handed bat in the middle of their order, and is a big reason they were able to briefly make their way to a .500 record earlier in May.

However, this emergence didn’t occur overnight. It has in fact been a long time coming for García, who signed with the Cardinals way back in February 2017 following years playing professionally in both Cuba and Japan. Through 3 seasons stateside, García didn’t have too much to show for his efforts aside from a solid track record in the upper levels of the Minor League ranks. From 2017-2019, García accumulated over 350 AA-AAA hits (of which 69 were home runs) but just 2 MLB hits for the Cardinals. Late in 2019 though, the Rangers picked up García from St. Louis for cash considerations in what now appears to have been a prescient move.

After missing out on 2020 baseball like so many others, García’s 2021 is off and running. To that end, this post covers three primary topics: what Adolis has done right to this point in 2021, whether the league is adjusting to him, and finally it addresses how to contextualize his performance among other free-swingers.

I: What García is Doing Right

Put simply, García is successfully making use of his plus tools. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 93rd percentile of Average Exit Velocity, 94th percentile for Barrel%, and 96th percentile in HardHit%. Additionally, he has complemented his power with speed; García ranks in the 84th percentile in sprint speed and has compounded that skill with strong outfield jumps (89th percentile) as well as Outs Above Average (93rd percentile). Altogether, FanGraphs gives García positive marks for his contributions batting, in the outfield, and on the base paths in 2021.

Crucially, García has feasted on both fastballs and breaking balls to this point, with identical 94.5 mph average exit velocities on both those pitch classifications according to Baseball Savant. His wOBA on fastballs is .447 and wOBA on breaking pitches is nearly the same, .429. While García’s BABIP figure of .338 is a bit above average, it isn’t exorbitantly so; neither is it rare for players who run as fast and make such quality contact to have BABIPs around that level.

As far as plate coverage is concerned, García hits the ball hard nearly everywhere in the zone. Only pitches put in play in the upper- and inner-third of the zone have left the bat as less than 90mph on average. His Average EV is greater than 93 mph in 7 of 9 sections of the strike zone.

II: Whether the League is Making Adjustments

For all his strengths, there are a couple key points of struggle for García to this point in 2021. For one, his K% and BB% are well below average, however this will be addressed later.

While García makes loud, quality contact on pitches in nearly any location, his Contact% plummets in the zones upper third. Just one of Adolis’ 15 barrels have come in the upper third of the zone and his Whiff% is well below average on pitches in those locations, as high as 65% on pitches middle-up. Additionally, while he has had great success hitting both fastballs and breaking pitches, García has struggled mightily on offspeed offerings, missing on 36.6% of them and producing uncharacteristically weak contact with just a 81.5 mph average exit velocity. In all, Adolis has produced just a .110 wOBA versus offspeed pitches; something that the Rangers as a whole struggle with.

Given these points, I wished to see whether, first, MLB pitchers have increasingly employed offspeed pitches against García and, second, if he has increasingly seen fastballs up in the zone. Below are two charts for 25-pitch rolling averages against Adolis. First, the 25-pitch rolling average on CH% thrown to him and second the 25-pitch rolling average on all fastball types’ vertical height.

Neither of the two charts above can tell the full story. For one, plenty of pitchers simply don’t throw offspeed pitches very often; facing a handful of those types in any given series can depress the rolling Offspeed% considerably. As for the second chart, rolling average vertical fastball height is more nuanced than I have presented it as here. Pitchers generally have approached García with pitches low and away, only to employ high fastballs as putaway pitches, whereas this rolls up fastballs from all situations and thus somewhat obscures things.

Still, it is interesting to see essentially no clear trends to this point relating to some of García’s clearest weaknesses.

III: Contextualizing García’s Performance

As aforementioned, García has poor K% and BB% results to this point in 2021. In fact, he has walked just 5.8% of the time and struck out 28.1% of the time. Plenty of players have a tough time on pitches up in the zone and plenty more struggle with offspeed pitches, but these K/BB% figures are likely of more immediate concern for García and the Rangers. To illustrate this point, below is a list of qualifying players dating back to 2000 who have struck out more than 28% of the time while walking in less than 6% of their plate appearances. As you’ll see, it’s not a particularly large list.

So just 12 meet the specifications above, most of which (7) are players in 2021 who have fewer than 200 plate appearances in total. Only Shohei Ohtani, García, and Javier Báez have been above average the plate, in terms of wRC+, while striking out so much and walking so little. Essentially, García does not have much history on his side for successful players running such drastic K and BB rates.

That said, only slight improvement gives way to a much less lonely list. Below is a leaderboard (ranked by wRC+) for players with >26% K% and <8% BB%.

In conclusion, Adolis García is off to a great start by making great use of his above-average strength and speed. However, there are some clear warning signs, specifically relating to how little he walks and how often he whiffs. If García can adjust those rates in a positive sense though going forward, while maintaining his superb Statcast metrics, there is considerably more precedent for maintained success.