When is the Rangers’ Window?

Last offseason, I considered the Rangers’ “skinny rebuild” and posited that 2020 would be a crucial season for determining its success. Toward the conclusion of the regular season, Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs also wrote, with greater skill and clarity, about the skinny rebuild happening in Texas. He captured the situation pretty precisely: a success, it was not. However, to their credit the Rangers have acted early and often after coming to terms with the reality of their 2020 on-field product. While additional moves will surely be made, this post quickly summarizes first, what has transpired to this point and second, when the Rangers might be targeting a new window of contention.

The Rangers’ moves have been characterized by slightly different flavors. Here is a rough timeline (as news was reported, released and/or written up at varying points in time):

• December 1st: The Rangers cut bait (but not really) on Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor, stripping each of their starter roles. In a corresponding move, they make a vote of confidence in Isiah Kiner-Falefa by shifting him over to shortstop. This transition was in some ways sentimental, but pragmatically it was addition by way of subtraction and a referendum on the Rangers’ 2020 lineup, which was untenable.

• December 4th: In what was generally surprising news, Jon Daniels conceded some control of team operations, bringing well-regarded ex-Ranger Chris Young aboard as the new GM. A move like this signals (to me at least) a willingness to let outside perspectives influence this next rebuilding push. However Ranger fans might feel about Daniels, it’s probably a good thing to have new insight in decision-making roles.

• December 8th: The Rangers play the traditional role of seller by finding a new home for Lance Lynn. Here they emphasized both near- and longterm rebuilding strategies by acquiring six years of control of MLB-ready Dane Dunning along with a bit of a lottery ticket in Avery Weems.

• December 10th: The Rangers cover their rebuilding tracks and send three young, potentially high ceiling prospects to the Rays for Nate Lowe and Jake Guenther. In what feels like a Jerry Dipoto “sell the farm but add youth/controllability to the big league roster” type deal, the Rangers perhaps signaled 19- and 20-year-olds weren’t quite advanced enough to be part of their intended window. Or, perhaps more likely, that the team’s cumulative 67 wRC+ from 2020 simply couldn’t be tolerated.

• December 10: As probably was to be expected, the Rangers took a player in the Rule 5 Draft. Here, it was bullpen depth in Brett de Geus. A bullpen arm is pragmatic here as de Geus could either succeed on an expedited track to the majors or be effectively hidden in a long-relief/mop-up role with the tools to expand from there.

• December 15th: The Rangers make a fairly common “bad team” move by trading a luxury good (i.e. valued bullpen arm) in Rafael Montero to a team in greater need. Here the Rangers’ return is promising, but hasn’t yet made it stateside or celebrated his 18th birthday, making this return run slightly contrary to the package sent to Tampa Bay.

• December 15th: Rangers sign recently non-tendered David Dahl to what amounts to a one-year deal with two team options, again signaling an intent to contend sooner rather than later. Between Lowe and Dahl, the lineup has made some incremental steps forward. With Dahl though, the Rangers suggest their intended window isn’t so terribly far off.

• December 16th: Some 40-man roster space is created and the Rangers again indicate the need for offensive improvements by shipping Scott Heineman to the Reds for prospect Jose Acosta. Heineman, while very potentially a serviceable fourth outfielder, probably didn’t cut it in the Rangers’ eyes as a player that could meaningfully impact the next iteration of their lineup. That Dahl (and his higher offensive ceiling) replaced him on the 40-man roster fuels my perception of this. Acosta, meanwhile, is yet another teenage acquisition who fits the Rangers’ interest in middle-infield types.

So, it has been a busy December for the Rangers. This sequence of moves suggests a couple things. First, this is no transition to a deeper rebuild; Joey Gallo is still on the team, and several other players that might attract contenders are too. Second, the holes in the field are probably easier to plug than those on the mound, specifically the rotation, and are thus being addressed first. Dahl and Lowe, neither of which represent big splashes, are nonetheless a more offense-oriented pair than what Ranger fans expect from Scott Heineman or Ronald Guzmán. Finally, while the Rangers perceive this rebuilding 2.0 period as a shorter one, it’s too early in their minds to go after big fish as evidenced by their approach to the free agent market.

Given that the bullpen appears to be in a pretty solid state and (meaningful) rotation additions appear beyond the scope of this offseason, the chart below covers the core pieces of the Rangers lineup based on contract/service time and age as of April 1st, 2021.

The Rangers lineup is under varying lengths of longer-term deals, which is probably logistically beneficial to the Rangers as no large group hits free agency all at once. Given the omnipresent pressure to “win now” though, in tandem with the Rangers’ investments in Isiah Kiner-Falefa (positionally) and David Dahl (financially), the Rangers seem poised to contend between 2022-2023.

However, Joey Gallo and the first half of the 2021 season are the real dominos here. Should the lineup generally perform and Gallo’s bat bounce back in 2020, the Rangers might well feel that the time is right to trade him for rotation help. That desire might be constrained though if the rest of the lineup flounders and Gallo alone is a difference maker offensively. Given that, it seems reasonable that the likelihood of a Gallo trade rests less on his performance than on that of his teammates. Either way, the rotation will eventually need to be addressed, regardless of the lineup’s progression and the bullpen’s depth, and Gallo is the most logical player to leverage to that end.

Enter Ha-Seong Kim, who has been linked to the Rangers and could help fill necessary holes in the Rangers depth chart, by way of moving other players down the defensive spectrum. Should the Rangers sign Kim (a fairly low-odds outcome, to be sure) that would be another clear sign that they believe this lineup of 20-somethings, right around Kim’s own age, can get the job done offensively with his help. Kim could keep Josh Jung‘s seat warm at third and slide over to second in replacement of Nick Solak (Solak, should he stick as a regular, will very likely be a bat-first player and could then supplant the Rangers’ corner outfield). Kim’s addition would leave Gallo perhaps more expendable for rotation help as the Rangers’ last meaningful trade chip.

Whatever the case, the Rangers have made some of their intentions clear this December. While having pivoted from their rebuild, this new iteration is similarly (problematically?) skinny in certain respects. If 2021 is a litmus test for the lineup, 2022 will be about the rotation coming together. With half a dozen ready or near-ready pitchers projected to be 4-5 starters, sorting out those rotation-worthy players will be important in 2021 too, but shipping Gallo elsewhere for a clearer top of the rotation piece might be increasingly unavoidable. At the very least this winter has been interesting for Rangers fans as well as an indication that management intends for a new window to open sooner rather than later.