Contextualizing Velocity and the Absence of Strikeouts

Brusdar Graterol and Dustin May are the subjects of this post. They are of particular interest given the Dodgers’ recent World Series victory, as well as in their own right, being talented pitchers. Primarily though, they are subjects here due to their position in the scatterplot presented below, which juxtaposes 2020 pitchers’ four-seam velocity and overall strikeout rate.

Four-seam velocity and K% are only generally correlated (pitchers have other pitches, after all); still, they represent a worthwhile relationship to track. This is due to the premium put on pitcher velocity today, which in part is motivated by the emphasis on pitcher-independent statistics like strikeout rates. It should be noted, though, that neither pitcher relies exclusively on a four-seam fastball; in fact, Graterol only rarely employs one while May also relies on both a sinker and cutter to complement the occasional four-seam. The reason for using that pitch as the measuring stick here is to simply track those pitchers with arm strength in mind.

In fact, in the case of velocity, Graterol and May represent the utmost extreme: these two pitchers ranked 1st and 2nd in four-seam velocity among pitchers who faced 75 or more batters in 2020. Despite this, these pitchers had strikeout rates that left something to be desired. May struck out 7.1 batters per 9 and Graterol struck out just 5.0 per 9. While it’s easy to point to sample size as a reason for this, all the pitchers above had the same relatively small sample size of performance in 2020.

This is not about making causal claims or rigorously isolating for nuance in either May’s and Graterol’s performances in 2020. Rather, it simply aims to contextualize these young pitchers among those other pitchers with elite velocity. In order to contextualize the two, May and Graterol have been included in the following four charts, which each include the same 20 pitchers. Each pitcher listed threw his four-seam 97mph or harder, on average, over the course of 2020. The minimum 75 batters faced filter still applies here, but importantly isn’t particularly robust; both starters and relievers are featured below with a wide array of pitch mixes to complement their 80-grade four-seam velocity.

First, below is a 2020 four-seam velocity leaderboard to go along with a snapshot of pitcher performance in 2020.

Of the 20 pitchers listed, May and Graterol occupy the bottom quartile of high-velocity four-seam pitchers in strikeout rate, along with Jimmy Cordero, Dylan Cease, and Jeurys Familia. Despite that, their overall performances were boosted by solid walk rates. Digging a bit deeper, Graterol and May appear to be outliers in terms of pitch location.

Of the 20 hardest throwers in 2020, Graterol and May threw inside the strike zone more than anyone. That said, their opponent contact rates, both inside and outside the strike zone, look to be above average for this group. Graterol, who, given his usage of a sinker, does seem to pitch more often to contact, nonetheless missed fewer bats on pitches outside the strike zone than Trevor Rosenthal or Josh Staumont on pitches inside the zone. In other words, when compared to pitchers with similarly elite velocity, Graterol and May pitch inside the strike zone at relatively high rates; that phenomenon that might be additionally motivated by a lack of swing-and-miss success of pitches outside the zone though.

Next, a very general glimpse at pitch mix/usage.

No one who threw 97+ mph four-seams in 2020 threw fastballs as often as Dustin May. That said, May’s distinct cutter, two- and four-seam fastballs help motivate that fact, as that 81.5% represents three pitches. While May has established good command and feel for those fastball variations, it is mildly perplexing to see his 3000+ RPM curveball employed just 13.3% of the time. Additionally, May used his curveball, which has easily the best SwStr% among his offerings (38.8% according to Baseball Savant), just over 25% of the time as a put-away pitch in 2020.

Graterol, on the other hand, has a rather traditional reliever two-pitch mix between a sinker and slider. Among the other relievers listed, Graterol’s 70/30 breakdown of fastball/breaking offerings look par for the course.

The final leaderboard very generally summarizes the type of contact these hard-throwing pitchers generate.

Brusdar Graterol’s power sinker helped him induce a greater percentage of groundballs than anyone on this list, aside from teammate Blake Treinen. May also induced an impressive groundball rate in 2020. These two pitchers’ average exit velocities, launch angles, and barrel% all suggest that they induced generally weak contact in 2020, which went a long way in mitigating their above average contact rates.

Going forward, the approach of Brusdar appears unlikely to change much. His two pitch mix, headlined by the 100mph sinker, and extreme groundball tendencies intersect to make him a prototypically valuable reliever on an elite team. In the case of May, there might be a few adjustments though. His pitch mix might grow less fastball-reliant in order to hike up his SwStr%, leave hitters guessing more often, and depress the HR/9 rate that jumped this year (again, with small samples in mind). He also might leave the zone a bit more often once he’s gotten ahead of hitters or at least secured first pitch strikes given how often hitters made contact on his pitches in the zone this season. This is purely speculation though and in the end, neither pitcher is broken, nor even remotely close to it. The dearth of strikeouts comes with a characteristic discrepancy between ERA and FIP, particularly in the case of May, but nonetheless both of these players actively contributed to a World Series-winning team.