(Rolling) Average Performances of Recent MVPs

Earlier in June, Craig Edwards of FanGraphs wrote a really interesting piece about Mike Trout, and a hypothetical world in which Trout played just 50 games every year. This came on the heels of rumors that MLB was considering a proposal for a season as short as 50 games for the 2020 season. To better perceive Trout’s performance through the lens of a 50-game season, Edwards made use of 50-game rolling averages. Rolling averages do a good job illustrating variance in performance over particular stretches of time; in the interest of seeing how Mike Trout’s remarkably strong career stacks up, this post briefly compares rolling averages of recent AL MVPs.

To start, below is a replication of Edwards’ own visualization of Trout’s 50-game rolling average.

This view of Trout’s career handedly underscores the consistency of his brilliance. Career games 1 through 49 feature endemic variance as the rolling sample grows to the target 50 full games. From there though, the fluctuations of Trout’s rolling average are notably modest given how relatively small a 50-game sample really is. In particular, the second half of Trout’s career has been largely devoid of substantial slumps.

Only after seeing how Trout stacks up to other elite players does it truly click how elite he is though. In reverse chronological order, the AL’s MVPs’ rolling averages will be visualized below. For the 2018 season, the AL’s winner was Mookie Betts.

Mookie Betts, a wildly talented player in his own right, nonetheless illustrates what an incredible task it is to maintain elite production from year to year. After completing his first 50 games in the majors, for three stretches Betts produced at a below average (100) rate (as given by wRC+) over 50-game stretches. This shouldn’t be a knock on his reputation of course, as most MLB players would be lucky to spend half their careers north of that 100 threshold.

What does jump out about Mookie Betts, though, given this view is that he found a new gear after roughly 500 MLB games. A lot could be said about swing adjustments made early on in his 2018 MVP season and that corresponding spike. That jump represents an ascend less gradual than that of 2017’s AL MVP, Jose Altuve.

Altuve’s offensive career covers a “traditional” arc in a lot of ways. He makes his debut and, after his 50-game sample actually hits 50 games, plays around league average for awhile. After two middling offensive seasons, Altuve raised his game in his next three. Continuing with that “traditional” (yet fictitious) storyline, Altuve’s best offensive season came while he was 27.

Trout was yet again an MVP in 2016, so the next player covered here is Josh Donaldson, winner of the 2015 AL MVP award.

Unlike those players covered above, Donaldson had prolonged struggles at the outset of his MLB career, in part due to injuries and in part due to performance (understanding how those two phenomena relate is an entirely different consideration). Donaldson’s rolling performance wasn’t enough to even be pictured in the plot above, given that it existed below the 50 mark while he got his footing in MLB. Only toward the end of 2012 does he march toward the 100 wRC+ mark. In 2013, Donaldson’s age-27 season, he becomes the Josh Donaldson we know today. Like Betts and Altuve, Donaldson really just once lasts above that 200 mark for a time.

The final player to cover here, Miguel Cabrera, has by far spent the most time in MLB among those players above. As such, his rolling average has already taken on an all too familiar curve. Still, his peaks are considerable.

Cabrera’s 2013 MVP award might be known as one of several times that Mike Trout was snubbed; regardless, Cabrera had an undeniably incredible season. His maximum rolling average of 237 in 2013 is higher than any same-length stretch in Mike Trout’s (or any of the other players here) career. Cabrera has surpassed that 200 mark on four distinct occasions across four distinct seasons. More recently, Cabrera has returned to earth (and then some) with a wRC+ that bottomed out near 50 for a time in 2017.

In summation, a final visualization has been made by layering all these players’ performances against one another through their first 1250 games (if they’ve made it that far through 2019). To smooth their curves, the 50-game average has been extended to a 100-game rolling average. Given the larger timeframe, player highs and lows are less drastic.

Thanks for reading – if you have any comments, questions, or requests, please feel free to comment below!