Power, at a Cost
This post has three purposes. First, to examine a unique season from a singular player. Second, to briefly take stock of his unique status among the wider field of ballplayers. And third, to consider which players might threaten his solitary status in this regard.
I. The Player
Ours is a world of tradeoffs. So too is the world of baseball. Choosing to do one thing in any instance intimates the rejection of another option. In baseball, the opportunity cost of ambushing a pitcher by swinging at his first offering might be losing the opportunity to see more of his pitches before later at bats.
For some baseball players, tapping into their power isn’t so costly that it distinctly affects their performance negatively. Some particularly talented players can effectively punish pitches without sacrificing approach, altering mechanics, or exposing a glaring hole in their swing. Not all players are so lucky.
This post starts with Rougned Odor. In my view, Odor has had a difficult time reconciling his natural power and his urge to unleash it. Specifically though, his 2016 season is of interest. Put simply, Odor slashed .271/.296/.502/.798 in 2016. This line might appear lopsided, but it is more than that. No one else since before 2000 has managed a .500+ slugging percentage while finishing south of the .300 OBP mark.
For one, this line indicates considerable power. A .200 ISO alone is a well above average mark. Odor hit 33 home runs in 2016 and had 70 extra base hits altogether. His team, the Rangers, jumped at the opportunity to extend their 22 year-old second baseman, believing that he would be a fixture in the heart of their lineup for years to come.
While Rougned remains with the Rangers, his production has tapered off dramatically. In 1421 plate appearances beginning in 2017, Odor has managed just 0.3 oWAR according to baseball reference. He has flashed his abilities at various points, but his approach seemingly erodes the streaks a player of his talent might otherwise be able to put together.
Odor is a tantalizing player because of his abilities, but those abilities might be exactly what keep him from employing a more measured approach. In other words, his power very much seems to come at a cost.
II. The Landscape
This isn’t all about Odor though. More broadly, the target here is to identify some broader trends for players who fail to get on base at a strong clip.
This scatterplot depicts the number of batters each season dating back to 2000 who managed to qualify for a batting title while reaching base less than 30% of the time.
Interestingly, at least to me, is the trend upward for players who have sub-.300 OBPs. Moneyball was published in the year 2003 and quickly spurred changes in player evaluation. One key tenant of Moneyball was an emphasis on a player’s ability to reach base without distinctions. Emphasizing not how a player got on base, but simply how often.
So this comes as a bit of a surprise to see relatively small groups of sub-.300 OBP players through the 2000’s only to give way to greater totals in the 2010’s.
All in all, 213 players from 2000-2018 failed to get on base 30% of the time. From 2000-2009, there were just 72, so just over 7 per season on average. From 2010 on, there have been 141, or nearly 16 players per season.
What is enabling that proliferation? Perhaps it is power like Odor’s. Just twice from 2000-2009 did an individual player in this group manage to record a wRC+ of 100 or more. Twelve times since 2010 there has been a player responsible for above average production despite an overt lack of on-base skills. While 12 is by no means a huge number, it is a significant jump from 2.
III. The Challengers
Finally, this third segment aims to consider three possible players with skill sets atypical enough to join Odor’s 21st century -.300 OBP / +.500 SLG club.
Franmil Reyes is quickly becoming a household name. He is one of prodigious power to all fields. He produces strong exit-velocity readings. His on-base skills have lagged behind though. Currently, he sports an OBP of .290 and a slugging percentage of .535. Given this, he is clearly on pace to join Odor.
The state of the Padres shouldn’t stand in his way. Their outfield is packed, but with a 110 wRC+ and as such a young player with room to develop, Franmil shouldn’t be a prime candidate to lose out on playing time. Reyes has not been very lucky by way of BABIP though; his is just .243. Should some more of his hits begin to fall, he might push himself over the ignominious .300 OBP mark. Lastly, his 41.3% line drive rate should help put him over the edge as well.
Rosario, a member of the home run heavy Twins, is having a very similar offensive campaign as Reyes. He is sporting a 109 wRC+ to go with a .517 slugging percentage, despite his .297 OBP. Additionally, his BABIP is just two points off Reyes’ mark, at .245. Rosario has been hitting line drives a little less regularly than Reyes however, with only 36.3% of his hits being classified as such by FanGraphs.
Rosario should have no problem qualifying here given a pretty clear recent track record in the way of health. Still, his low BABIP suggests that he, like Reyes, will be able to boost his OBP over .300 by the season’s end (or by next week). Currently, his BABIP is actually just .171 over the past 14 days. His current qualification for this short list at all might simply be a blip on the radar.
Soler has a .300 OBP on the dot, but the season isn’t ending today. Also, he notably has a fairly respectable .282 BABIP, suggesting that he hasn’t been overly unfortunate with balls put into play. Additionally, his 6.6% walk rate really doesn’t suggest that he’s going to be reaching base by way of the free pass often enough to be a real difference maker here.
Soler’s line drive rate is also just 17.9%, far behind that of Rosario and Reyes. His 35 extra base hits to date though suggest he could very well sustain a .500 SLG into the summer. For these reasons, he might be the likely candidate to join Odor in what is an extremely exclusive and mildly strange group.
Honorable mention: Jay Bruce, but a .211 BABIP kept him out of the running.
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