Who is On Pace to Throw 200 Innings?

Throwing 200 innings in this generation of baseball is an increasingly rare occurrence. Innings limits are imposed on young or injury-recovering pitchers with increasing regularity. Using “Openers” is a phenomenon that is gaining traction. Turns in the rotation get skipped to create extra rest. It feels as though each Spring Training features a story wherein a team is tinkering with the idea of a six man rotation. Gone are the days of Mark Buehrle.

Very simply, starters aren’t going as deep into games or making as many starts in any given season. Data indicate that pitching to an order a third time can be a daunting task for most starters. This , in tandem with an increased emphasis on high-octane bullpens, has made it easier for managers to defer to their pens earlier than ever.

Maybe because of these assorted headwinds it is easier than ever to appreciate those pitchers who do manage to throw 200 innings in any given season, let alone in multiple campaigns. And who doesn’t love a good round number as a benchmark?

Given these considerations, this post examines where 2019’s cohort of pitchers lies in the landscape of recent IP history for pitchers, and considers who might be on pace to hit that significant, yet statistically superficial, 200 inning threshold this season.

First, let’s take a look at some clear evidence that 200 inning seasons are trending downward this century. Below is a scatterplot that does just that.

No more than 15 pitchers have eclipsed 200 innings in any of the prior three seasons. The past three seasons, in fact, represent an even more drastic dropoff from the preexisting trend. In 2018, just 13 individuals made it to 200 innings.  

Not only are fewer pitchers surpassing 200 innings, but those who do manage to are increasingly doing so by smaller and smaller margins. Below is a second scatterplot, this one includes points that represent individual players. Clearly, points congregate just north of the 200 inning line in most cases and increasingly don’t make it too much further up the vertical axis.

In 2017, Chris Sale led baseball in innings pitched. Chris Sale threw 214.1 innings that season, a healthy total to be sure, but not one that a lot of baseball fans (or so I dare to assume) might imagine a pitcher could lead all of baseball with. From 2000-2009, there were on average 41 pitchers per season who eclipsed 200 innings pitched. From 2011-2018, fewer than 29 pitchers passed 200 innings, on average.

Chris Sale’s 2017 season indeed represents the most modest IP leader we have seen this century. Attached is a table that runs through IP leaders dating back to the year 2000.

IP leaders from the first decade of the 21st century again outpace the cohorts as a whole. From 2000-2009 MLB’s IP leader threw more than 249 innings, on average. From 2010-2018 IP leaders averaged just over 236 innings pitched.  

Given this context, we can now turn to the ultimate purpose of this post: to examine who is loosely on pace for 200+ innings here in 2019. The approach taken here, it should be stated, is not particularly rigorous.  

Very simply, through June 9th, most teams have played right around 65 games, give or take a few. 65/162 is just over 40%.  40% of 200 innings is 80.  Who has thrown 80 innings so far?

That’d be them:

But, it’s never truly that simple. In baseball there is always nuance. There are pitchers who hit their stride with summer’s return; there are pitchers who break down in heat; there is attrition and there are playoff races. Simple extrapolation likely won’t tell a terribly predictive story here.

Making use of Fangraphs’ delightful new write-in dates function, this final table illustrates exactly that point.

The relationship between the number of players past 80 IP each of the last 11 seasons and the number of pitchers who surpass 200 is frankly nonexistent. In 2015 more than twice as many players reached 200 as were on pace to through June 9th. In 2018 just slightly more than half reached the mark despite having been on pace in early June. Only Justin Verlander and David Price have led baseball in innings at this point and ended the season still setting the pace.

So really there are two takeaways here. First, 22 players are on pace to reach 200 innings in 2019. Second, and more pointedly, pace doesn’t determine very much, at least at this juncture.  So while this post does in fact list those who are on pace to reach 200 innings, it perhaps more importantly highlights how limited such a list is for making assumptions going forward.