Felix’s Streak, In Scatter Plots

As MLB’s 2019 Opening Day nears, managers seemingly take turns naming their starters of choice to begin their teams’ season.  It is of note that Felix Hernandez will not, for the first time in a decade, be starting off the season for the Seattle Mariners. Felix himself is not pleased with this development.  Not since 2008 have the Mariners tapped another player to commence their season.  While pitching on Opening Day is more a symbolic act than strategic one given the 161 games (at least) that come thereafter, its nonetheless worth taking a moment to reflect visually on Felix’s impressive decade-long run is well worthwhile.

In these past ten Opening Day starts Hernandez has thrown quite well.  The Mariners have won eight of those ten games during his streak, an impressive record especially when considering they played eight of their ten Opening Day games on the road.  

Here are four scatter plots, constructed with data provided by Brooks Baseball, and a set of Opening Day line scores that capture some of what Felix did over his run.

While Felix’s Game Scores (an imperfect measure, to be sure) have indeed vacillated over the past decade, they have overall been well above average.

Much has been made of Felix’s dropoff in velocity. The above scatter plot features his four-seam fastball velocity; while his two-seam is more often utilized, this pitch may better illustrate the velocity of his max-velo offering. Despite April being the slowest average month of league-wide fastball velocities, Felix still sat around 95+ mph in April his first three years of this streak.

The above plot captures Felix’s usage of his exceptionally productive changeup for the month of April, each of the last ten seasons. The heightened usage might indeed correspond with a diminishing fastball, but it has also seen a slight dropoff in recent years, at least in the seasons’ first full month.

In all, it is quite impressive to come away with six Opening Day victories in a ten year period, and have started game that led to eight team victories. While his streak is coming to an end, one might imagine that Felix Hernandez (while still irked) is more intent on disproving his doubters over a full season’s length, not just the season’s first day. Lose the battle, win the war.